Gold and Silver Outlook: Citi Sees $5,000 Gold and $100 Silver by March but Warns of a Correction

The precious metals market has entered a powerful momentum phase. Gold and silver are not merely rising; they are redefining historical price benchmarks. According to Citigroup, gold could surge to $5,000 per ounce and silver could reach $100 per ounce by March 2026. This aggressive forecast reflects a broader global shift toward safe haven assets amid elevated uncertainty.

However, Citi also delivers a crucial caution. After the sharp first quarter rally, gold may become vulnerable to a correction later in 2026 if global stress levels ease. The opportunity remains strong in the short term, but risk management will be essential

Why Gold Is in a Supercycle

Gold has already posted a historic rally. Reuters reports that gold recently tested the all time high zone near $4,629 per ounce, carrying bullish momentum into 2026 after an exceptional 2025 performance.

Several forces are driving this supercycle. Persistent geopolitical uncertainty has increased demand for safety. Investors are shifting capital toward defensive assets as global risk rises. Expectations of interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve, supported by softer inflation data and macroeconomic stress, are further weakening the dollar. Central bank gold purchases and strong ETF inflows continue to provide structural support.

Gold is no longer behaving like a traditional commodity. It is increasingly treated as a global insurance asset against systemic risk.

Silver Outlook and the Case for $100

Silver is exhibiting high beta behavior and amplifying gold’s move. Reuters notes that silver has already crossed the $90 per ounce level in early 2026, reaching record territory.

Silver’s outperformance is driven by its dual nature. It benefits from investment demand during risk off environments while also drawing strength from industrial consumption. Its smaller market size makes it more sensitive to capital inflows, resulting in sharper and faster price movements during bull cycles. In strong rallies, silver historically outpaces gold.

Gold Vulnerable to Correction After Q1

This is the most critical part of Citi’s outlook. The bank clearly states that if geopolitical tensions cool later in 2026, gold could experience a meaningful correction after its first quarter surge.

This does not necessarily imply a market crash. Instead, traders should be prepared for sharp profit booking, leverage unwinding, and fast pullbacks in the range of five to ten percent. Reuters has already observed minor pullbacks after record highs, signaling rising volatility in the market.

Practical Gold and Silver Strategy

Gold remains bullish with strong momentum, but volatility has increased significantly. Chasing price at highs carries elevated risk. A buy on dips approach with staggered entries is more suitable under current conditions.

Silver remains bullish but is best suited for disciplined traders. Price swings are aggressive and stop loss hunting is common. Position sizing and strict risk controls are essential when trading silver in this phase.

Conclusion

The path toward $5,000 gold and $100 silver remains open, but it will not be smooth. Citi’s projection highlights a clear window of opportunity over the next six to ten weeks, followed by rising correction risk after the first quarter.

The optimal strategy is to stay aligned with the trend, protect profits actively, and respect the heightened volatility dominating the precious metals market.

Frequently Asked Questions

1. Is gold still a good investment in 2026

Gold remains attractive in the short term due to geopolitical risk, strong central bank buying, and expectations of interest rate cuts. However, volatility is high and the risk of a correction increases after the first quarter.

2. Why is silver rising faster than gold

Silver has a smaller market size and benefits from both investment demand and industrial usage. This combination leads to sharper and faster price movements during strong bull markets.

3. Will gold crash after reaching $5,000

A crash is not the base case. Most analysts expect corrections in the form of profit booking and pullbacks rather than a long term reversal of the trend.

4. Is it risky to buy gold at current levels

Buying at elevated levels carries higher risk. Accumulating on price dips with disciplined risk management is generally considered a safer strategy in volatile market conditions.