US Unemployment at 4.6%: Why Commodities Are Sending Very Different Signals

The US unemployment rate has risen to 4.6%, the highest since September 2021.

While this signals economic cooling, commodities are not moving in one direction.

Instead, markets are witnessing a sharp divergence:

• Silver at all-time highs above $65

• Gold near record levels

• Crude oil collapsing

• Natural gas behaving differently altogether

This divergence reflects late-cycle macro dynamics — where liquidity expectations and growth fears coexist.

Rising Unemployment = Fed Pivot Expectations

A weakening labour market increases pressure on the Federal Reserve to ease policy.

• Markets are now pricing:

• Slower growth

• Easing wage pressures

At least a couple of rate cuts early next year

This expectation is the core driver behind strength in precious metals.

Silver at $65+: Liquidity + Industrial Demand Combo

Silver’s rally to $65+ and fresh all-time highs is significant.

What’s driving silver:

Dual identity: industrial + monetary metal

• Strong demand from EVs, solar, electronics

• Weakening dollar

• Falling real rates

Silver typically leads monetary easing cycles, and its breakout suggests markets are aggressively positioning for easier liquidity.

Gold Near All-Time Highs: Monetary Insurance in Demand

Gold’s strength reflects:

• Rate cut expectations

• Falling real yields

• Global economic uncertainty

• Central bank buying

Gold thrives when confidence in growth and policy stability weakens.

Rising unemployment historically strengthens gold’s role as a store of value.

Crude Oil at $55–59: Demand Destruction Fears

In contrast to metals:

• WTI crude ~ $55

• Brent crude ~ $59

• Oil prices are signalling:

• Slowing global demand

• Economic stress

• Weak consumption outlook

Oil is a growth-sensitive commodity, and it is flashing early recession warnings.

Natural Gas: Weather, Supply & Growth — A Different Equation

Unlike oil, natural gas is not purely a growth proxy.

Why natural gas behaves differently:

• Highly sensitive to weather patterns

• Influenced by storage levels and production

• Strong role in power generation and LNG exports

• With rising unemployment and slowing growth:

• Industrial demand may soften

• But power and residential demand remains resilient

• LNG exports keep global demand supported

Natural gas reflects regional supply-demand dynamics more than macro liquidity.

In a slowdown:

• Gas may stay volatile

• Sharp rallies and corrections are common

• Less correlated to gold/silver and oil

What This Commodity Divergence Is Really Telling Us

Markets are effectively saying:

“Liquidity may improve — but real economic growth is slowing.”

Final Takeaway

The rise in US unemployment to 4.6% has created a split commodity market:

• Gold & Silver are pricing in rate cuts and currency risk

• Crude oil is warning of slowing global growth

• Natural gas remains volatile, driven more by supply, weather, and regional demand

This divergence is not confusion — it’s a clear macro message.

• Liquidity expectations are rising

• Growth risks are real

• Commodities are positioning accordingly